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瑞信_2018年度全球财富报告(英文)2018.10_60页

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2 Introduction The Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report is themost extensive and current source of informa- tion on global household wealth. Now in itsninth edition, the report not only providesinsights into the wealth development of regionsand segments, but for the first time it alsofocuses on the most recent evidence on femalewealth holdings, in particular on gender differ- ences with males. During the 12 months since our last report tomid-2018, aggregate global wealth rose by USD14 trillion to USD 317 trillion, which represents agrowth rate of approximately 4.6%. This growthrate was lower than last year, but higher than theaverage growth rate in the post-2008 era. Thiswas sufficient to outpace population growth, sothat wealth per adult grew by approximately3.2%, a record high. Looking at the number ofmillionaires, we see that there are 42.2 millionmillionaires worldwide, which is up 2.3 millionover the previous 12 months. Our researchindicates that the United States added 878,000new millionaires – representing around 40% ofthe global increase – to its already sizable stock,whereas the number of newcomers in France,Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy wasaround 200,000 each. In China, the number ofmillionaires rose by a modest 186,000 and inJapan 94,000. The main explanation for theseincreases in millionaire numbers within countrieslies in the real wealth growth, rather than inexchange-rate movements. Millionaire numbersfell in very few countries (such as Turkey andBrazil), and by relatively small amounts, the maindriver being currency depreciation. The key finding of this year’s new wealth valuationis for many observers not surprising – China isnow clearly established second place in the worldwealth hierarchy. The country overtook Japan withrespect to the number of ultra-high net worth(UHNW) individuals in 2009, total wealth in 2011and the number of millionaires in 2014. Neverthe- less, the data shows that mean wealth per adult inChina (USD 47,810 in mid-2018) remains farbelow the level in Japan (USD 227,240). Turning our interest to the lower level of thewealth distribution, we see that 3.2 billionadults or about 64% of the adult populationlives with a wealth below USD 10,000, whichcorresponds to only 1.9% of the global wealth.Those with low wealth are disproportionatelyfound among the younger age groups, thosewho live in regions where prospects for wealthcreation are very limited (most notably Africa)and where opportunities are sometimesconstrained.The wealth of women has been receivingincreasing attention and we estimate thatwomen account for about 40% of globalwealth overall. During the 20th century, theirshare of wealth rose considerably and, sincethe year 2000, the level of women’s wealthhas risen along with all household wealth,especially in Asia alongside the rise of China’swealth. The tendency shows that moreself-made women are succeeding in businessand are entering the highest wealth ranks.Despite this trend, even in those countrieswhere progress is the strongest, some catego- ries of women – such as single mothers anddivorcees – remain disadvantaged. While moreis required to be done to ensure that womenhave an equal opportunity to build up, inheritand share in wealth, there are signs thatprogress has been happening in many parts ofthe world. Given some of this year’s intriguing findings, wehope you find the 2018 edition of the GlobalWealth Report a valuable source of insight andwish you interesting reading. Urs Rohner Chairman of the Board of Directors Credit Suisse Group AG Global Wealth Report 2018302 Introduction04Global wealth 2018: The year in review 13Global trends in household wealth For more information, contact: Richard Kersley, Head Global Thematic Research, Credit Suisse Investment Banking, richard.kersley@credit-suisse, or Michael O’Sullivan, Chief Investment Officer, International Wealth Management, Credit Suisse, michael.o’sullivan@credit-suisse 57 About the authors 20 The global wealth pyramid 25 Women and wealth 33 Wealth outlook 40United States – The boom goes on 39 Wealth of nations 58 General disclaimer / Important information 41China – Growth champion 42India – Growth story 43Russia – Changing fortunes 44Germany – Powerhouse of Europe 45United Kingdom – Brexit gets close 46Switzerland – View from the top 47Singapore – Renewed growth 48Japan – Hanging on 49South Korea – Growth star 50Indonesia – Little recent growth 51South Africa – Wealth uptick 52Brazil – Sliding 53Chile – LatAm wealth champion 54Canada – Slower growth 55Australia – Still resilient 4 Global wealth 2018: The year in review Wealth landmarks in mid-2018 The world was wealthier in the past than webelieved a year ago. New official statisticaldata and other reliable sources have led us torevise our estimate of total global wealth inmid-2017 upward by nearly USD 23 trillion, or 8%. China is the main beneficiary of thisnewly recorded wealth, although Spanishwealth has also been subjected to a majorupgrade. The revision mostly relates tonon-financial assets owned by the middleclass. This reduces our estimate of the shareof financial assets in total global wealth by 1%and the shares of the top 1% and top 10% ofwealth holders by about three percentagepoints. The main outcome of the new wealth valua- tions is confirmation of what many observersalready suspected – that China is now clearlyestablished in second place in the worldwealth hierarchy. Our revised figures suggestthat China overtook Japan with respect to thenumber of ultra-high net worth (UHNW)individuals in 2009, total wealth in 2011, andthe number of millionaires in 2014. However,mean wealth per adult in China (USD 47,810in mid-2018) remains far below the level inJapan (USD 227,240), and median wealthlags even further behind Japan (USD 16,330versus USD 103,860). Now in its ninth edition, the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report is themost comprehensive and up-to-date source of information on globalhousehold wealth. Wealth continued to grow at a moderate pace in2018, partly reflecting continued rises in equity markets but due moreto increases in non-financial assets. The United States continued itsunbroken spell of wealth gains since the global financial crisis, addinganother USD 6 trillion to the stock of global wealth. China and Europealso made significant contributions to the new record level of globalwealth, which is equivalent to USD 63,100 per adult. Anthony Shorrocks, James Davies and Rodrigo Lluberas Another prominent feature of the worldwealth outlook this year is the seeminglyrelentless rise in household wealth in theUnited States. Total wealth and wealth peradult in the United States have grown everyyear since 2008, even when total globalwealth suffered a reversal in 2014 and 2015.The United States has accounted for 40% ofall increments to world wealth since 2008,and 58% of the rise since 2013. While notwishing to cast doubt on the Trump Effecton financial markets, it seems inevitable thatthe uninterrupted spell of increasing wealth in the United States will come to an end atsome time. Fortunately, there are signs thatwealth inequality is no longer rising, whichshould mitigate the impact of any setback onthe middle classes. An overview of the past year During the 12 months to mid-2018, aggregateglobal wealth rose by USD 14.0 trillion to USD317 trillion, representing a growth rate of 4.6%(see Table 1). This growth rate was lower than forcalendar year 2017, but higher than the averagegrowth rate in the post-2008 era, and a consider- able improvement on the decline during 2014–15.It was also sufficient to outpace populationgrowth, so that wealth per adult grew by 3.2%,raising global mean wealth to USD 63,100 peradult, a record high. 。。。。。。