The world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister companyto The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years’ experience in helping businesses, fnancial frms andgovernments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed.Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to becommentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The world’s leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed aboutwhat is happening around the world. 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CAUSE FOR CONCERN THE TOP 10 RISKS TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMYThe Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20181 Executive summary 2 The axis of risk 3 Prolonged fall in major stockmarkets destabilises the global economy 5 Global trade slumps as US steps up protectionist policies 7 Territorial disputes in the South China Sea lead to an outbreak of hostilities 9 Global growth surges above 4% 11 A major cyber-attack cripples corporate and government activities 12 China sufers a disorderly and prolonged economic downturn 13 There is a major military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula 15 Proxy conficts in the Middle East escalate into direct confrontations that cripple global energymarkets 16 Oil prices fall signifcantly after the OPEC deal to curb production breaks down 17 Multiple countries withdraw from the euro zone 19 Contents CAUSE FOR CONCERN THE TOP 10 RISKS TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMYThe Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20182 Executive summary T here has arguably never been a greater disconnect between the apparent strength of the globaleconomy and the magnitude of geopolitical, fnancial and operational risks that organisations are facing. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects momentum in the global economy to remain strong in 2018.The US economy will continue to motor along, the euro area will absorb more of the slack in its labourmarkets and Chinese consumption, investment and exports will all remain strong. Higher commodityprices will prove a fllip for emerging-market exporters, while a gradual tightening of monetaryconditions will not take hold to the extent that it slows growth. Taken together, these factors mean thatthe global economy is forecast to expand by 3% in 2018, up from a mediocre annual average pace of2.6% in 2015-16. Despite the encouraging headline growth fgures, the global economy is facing the highest level ofrisk in years. Indeed, this favourable economic picture appears to come from a completely diferentworld to the one where headlines are dominated by protectionist rhetoric, major territorial disputes,terrorism, surging cyber-crime and even the threat of nuclear war. The global economy has seenperiods of high risk before, with threats emanating from the regional and the national level, as wellas from state and non-state actors. What is unique about this period of heightened risk, however,is that unlike other periods in recent decades, risks are also originating from the global level, as theUS questions its role in the world and partially abdicates from its responsibilities. These moves havesignalled the end of the US-led global order and the beginning of a new order. Although the new orderwill emerge over the next decade, there will be a period of uncertainty as multiple global and regionalpowers vie for power and infuence. For organisations attempting to negotiate these concerns in orderto take advantage of the numerous and growing economic opportunities, the stakes are obviously high.In this report we identify and assess the top ten risks to the global political and economic order.Each of the risks is not only outlined, but also rated in terms of its likelihood and its potential impacton the global economy. This is a small snapshot of our risk quantifcation capabilities. We also provideoperational risk analysis on a country-by-country basis for 180 countries through our Risk Briefng.Meanwhile, we provide detailed credit risk assessments on 131 countries via our Country Risk Service.Together, these products enable our clients to plot the main threats to their organisations, supplychains and sovereign creditors. We ofer robust risk modelling, scenario analysis and daily eventsscanning for the threats and opportunities that abound in the global economy.。。。。。。