本文首先根据国内外工业化阶段相关理论，对我国 1978-2015 年工业化
阶段进行划分；再者，本文基于永续盘存法（PIM），同样是 PIM 在资本存
量核算的应用，只不过是在标准路径基础上进行了发展，建立了适合我国资
本品存量测算的分析框架，然后，选取相应各期《中国统计年鉴 1978-2015》
的基础指标数据，并对缺失数据进行合理的处理，将 1978-2015 年建筑类与
设备类的资本品存量各自计算出来，最后再进行总的相加，从而得到我国
1978-2015 年总体的资本品存量，运用时间序列方法，分析出我国 1978-2015
年间资本品存量的变动情况，最后，通过实证研究，结合我国工业化阶段的
划分，对我国 1978-2015 年间资本品存量和内部结构的变化规律进行了深入
分析，从经济增长与资本积累的关系、资本产出比、资本深化以及资本品积
累内部结构四个方面，总结出了 1978-2015 年我国工业化进程与资本品积累
的变动规律
关键词：工业化；资本品积累；变动规律哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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Abstract
Since entering the industrialized society, capital goods represented by
machinery and equipment have played an increasingly important role in the
development of industrial enterprises and the development of productive forces .
Capital goods are the carrier of advanced technology, which is an important
factor of the core competitiveness of industrial enterprises, and a country&39;s
overall level of capital goods stock becomes a main measure of the level of the
country&39;s productive forces. Therefore, combined with the relevant theory of
national industrialization process, carrying out the national level of capital
accumulation research is important. Through theoretical and empirical analysis,
we could understand the relationship between national industrialization process
and the capital goods accumulation correctly and provide data support for
government to formulate industrialization related policies.
This paper first divides the industrialization stage of China from 1978 to
2015 according to the theory of industrialization stage at home or abroad.
Moreover, this paper is based on the perpetual inventory method (PIM),
establishing an analysis framework for the calculation of capital goods in China.
It is also the application of PIM in capital stock accounting and is developed on
the basis of standard path. Then, this paper selects the basic data indicators from
China Statistical Yearbook 1978-2015, and makes reasonable treatment of lack
data, so that 1978-2015 construction and equipment category of capital goods
were calculated. And finally add, so as to get our country’s overall capital goods
from 1978 to 2015. Using the time series method, we could get the change trend
of the capital goods stock in China from 1978 to 2015. Finally, through the
empirical research, combined with the analysis of the relationship between the
industrialization stage and the capital goods stock in China, the paper makes a
deep analysis in the law of stock and structure change of capital goods in China
from 1978 to 2015. From the following four aspects, which are the relationship
between economic growth and capital accumulation, capital output ratio, capital
deepening and internal structure of capital goods accumulation, this paper
summed up the change law of capital goods accumulation in the 1978-1915哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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China&39;s industrialization process.
Keywords: Industrial process, Capital goods stock, Change law哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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目 录
摘要.....I
Abstract ..II
第 1 章 绪 论 .. 1
1.1 问题提出与研究意义 ...... 1
1.1.1 问题提出 ...... 1
1.1.2 研究意义 ...... 2
1.2 国内外研究现状及评述 .. 2
1.2.1 工业化阶段相关研究现状 .... 2
1.2.2 资本品积累与经济增长的关系 ........ 5
1.2.3 资本品存量测算相关研究 .... 7
1.2.4 资本产出比相关研究 ........... 8
1.2.5 国内外文献综述简析 ........... 9
1.3 研究内容与研究方法 .... 10
1.3.1 研究内容 .... 10
1.3.2 研究方法 .....11
1.3.3 技术路线图 . 12
第 2 章 我国资本品存量测算框架与方法的建立....... 14
2.1 根据相关工业化理论对我国工业化进程的分析 .......... 14
2.2 资本品积累基本概念界定 ........ 16
2.2.1 资本品的界定与分类 ......... 17
2.2.2 资本品积累与资本品消耗 .. 17
2.3 资本品存量核算相关理论 ........ 18
2.3.1 永续盘存法 . 18
2.3.2 直接调查法 . 19
2.3.3 固定资产平衡表法 . 19
2.3.4 三种资本品存量核算方法的比较分析 ...... 20
2.4 我国资本品存量核算基本框架 . 21
2.4.1 基于永续盘存法的传统资本存量核算框架 ........... 21哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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2.4.2 修改后的我国资本品存量核算框架 .......... 22
2.5 我国资本品存量测算方法 ........ 23
2.6 本章小结 ........... 24
第 3 章 1978-2015 年我国资本品存量核算及时间序列分析 . 26
3.1 数据选取与基本参数、变量的确定 ..... 26
3.1.1 数据选取与搜集 ..... 26
3.1.2 折旧率与基年末资本品存量的确定 .......... 27
3.1.3 投资价格指数与当年投资额
I
的确定 ....... 30
3.2 我国 1978-2015 年资本品积累量 ......... 34
3.2.1 我国 1978-2015 年建筑类资本品存量 ....... 35
3.2.2 我国 1978-2015 年设备类资本品存量 ....... 36
3.2.3 我国资本品积累的时间序列分析 .. 38
3.3 本章小结 ........... 41
第 4 章 1978-2015 年我国工业化进程中资本品积累规律性研究 ..... 42
4.1 经济增长与资本品积累的变动规律 ..... 42
4.2 资本品产出比的变动规律 ........ 43
4.3 资本深化的变动规律 .... 44
4.4 资本
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