Global
Investment
Outlook
Q2 2017
20170331-129301-362456
FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, WHOLESALE AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN U.S. ONLY.Kate Moore
Chief Equity Strategist
BlackRock Investment
Institute
Jean Boivin
Head of Economic and
Markets Research
BlackRock Investment
Institute
Isabelle Mateos y Lago
Chief Multi-Asset Strategist
BlackRock Investment
Institute
Jeff Rosenberg
Chief Fixed
Income Strategist
BlackRock Investment
Institute
Richard Turnill
Global Chief
Investment Strategist
BlackRock Investment
Institute
SETTING THE SCENE .......3
THEMES 4¨C7
Broadening refation
Low returns ahead
Diferent diversifcation
Risks
MARKETS .......8¨C11
Government bonds
Credit
Equities
Assets in brief
GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Refation is going global. The signs include a rebound in infation expectations, a
bottoming out in core infation and wages, and a synchronized pick-up in economic
activity indicators and corporate earnings estimates. Our key views:
outside the U.S. We see global yields rising further but within limits: The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)
is likely to raise interest rates only gradually, and structural dynamics such as aging populations keep
us in a low-return world. We believe investors need to go beyond broad equity and bond exposures
to diversify portfolios in this environment, and include factor-based allocations and alternatives.
as corporate investment. In the U.S., the anti-growth part of President Donald Trump's agenda
(protectionism) could win out over the pro-growth part (deregulation and tax cuts). Any shift of
expectations toward a faster pace of Fed rate rises could spook markets. We see upside risk in
Europe, where we do not expect elections to deliver the populist outcomes feared by markets.
like European and Japanese stocks amid strong global growth. We see value shares such as fnancials
beneftting from rising yields. We are neutral on U.S. shares because of lofty valuations and the risk that
expectations for tax reform and deregulation may be too high. We like emerging market (EM) equities
on reform progress in countries such as India and our view that near-term risks to China's growth are
overstated. In fxed income, we prefer higher-quality corporate bonds and selected EM debt.
20170331-129301-362456
FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, WHOLESALE AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS/CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN U.S. ONLY.
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