Global Trends 2016–2021
Political, Technological,
and Demographic
Revolutions
Five key trends will shape the global outlook
and operating environment through 2021.
About Global Trends
Global Trends 2016–2021 identifies five macro trends that
will play an outsize role in the current and future operating
environment for businesses, governments, and citizens
around the globe.
In fulfilling its core mandate to help leaders anticipate
and plan for the future, the A.T. Kearney Global Business
Policy Council (GBPC) continually scans the horizon for
developments across the global external strategic
operating environment in the key dimensions of
demography, economy, environment, geopolitics,
governance, resources, and technology. In assessing
these dimensions, the GBPC identifies on an annual basis
those emerging trends that are likely to have the most
significant implications for how businesses and
governments operate over the next five years. Global
Trends 2016–2021 explores how each of these trends
manifests itself today, analyzes its medium-term outlook,
and presents high-level business implications in each case.
The goal of the GBPC’s annual Global Trends publication is
to help business leaders and strategic planners question
their assumptions and become more agile in adapting to
the future—whatever it might bring. As such, the GBPC’s
analysis can help organizations to develop monitoring
systems for the evolution of trends that are especially
germane to their sector or industry, mitigating downside
risks, recognizing opportunities, and generally informing
their long-term strategies.
1Global Trends 2016–2021: Political, Technological, and Demographic Revolutions
Executive Summary: Five Macro Trends for 2016–2021
economic policies continues to spread in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis due to a
broad range of underlying structural issues, from digital information proliferation to wealth
inequality. This backlash is creating policy instability and raises the risk of a potentially hostile
environment for globalized business models.
the region, and their reform agendas could shift the trajectory of Latin American politics and
economics, and therefore the business environment, for years to come—if they can success-
fully navigate a challenging economic and political environment and continue to strengthen
ties with Asia Pacific economies.
working-age adults is stagnating while labor force participation rates are falling. And although
labor surpluses in some markets could be mobilized to relieve shortages in others, labor
appears to be fracturing into a less globalized and cohesive market, likely raising costs for
businesses.
shifting toward buying fewer physical goods, rooted in cultural beliefs that encourage a
“less is more” attitude toward life, and valuing experiences over possessions. While this is
creating new business opportunities for service providers, it also raises important challenges
for traditional consumer products groups and retailers.
biotechnology is bending the cost and timeline curves for major scientific breakthroughs.
Its applications will have far-reaching impacts on a multitude of industries, altering business
models, regulatory environments, and consumer demands and preferences worldwide.
1 CRISPR: clustered, regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats
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