World Economic and Financial Surveys
Regional Economic Outlook
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Asia and Pacifc
Preparing for Choppy Seas
17A
P
R
Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: International Monetary Fund.
Title: Regional economic outlook. Asia and Pacifc : preparing for choppy seas.
Other titles: Asia and Pacifc : preparing for choppy seas | Preparing for choppy seas | World
economic and fnancial surveys
Description: [Washington, DC] : International Monetary Fund, 2017. | World economic and
fnancial surveys, 0258-7440 | Apr. 2017. | Includes bibliographical references.
Identifers: ISBN 978-1-47557-506-4 (paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Economic forecasting—Asia. | Economic forecasting— Pacifc Area. |
Economic development—Asia. | Economic development— Pacifc Area. | Asia—Economic
conditions. | Pacifc Area—Economic conditions.
Classifcation: LCC HC412.R445 2017
The
Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacifc
is published annually in the spring to review
developments in the Asia-Pacifc region. Both projections and policy considerations are those of
the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF
Management.
Please send orders to:
International Monetary Fund
Publication Services
P.O. Box 92780
Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.
Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201
publications@imf
imfbookstore
elibrary.imf
iii
International Monetary Fund | April 2017
Contents
Defnitions ix
Executive Summary xiii
1. Preparing for Choppy Seas 1
Recent Developments and Near-Term Outlook 1
Risks to the Outlook: On Balance to the Downside 16
Policy Recommendations 22
References 42
2. Asia: At Risk of Growing Old before Becoming Rich 43
Introduction and Main Findings 43
Demographic Trends in Asia 44
Growth Implications of Demographic Trends 47
External Balance Implications of Demographic Trends 52
Financial Market Implications of Demographic Trends 54
Policy Implications of Demographic Trends 59
Annex 2.1 Data and Methodology: Estimating the Impact of Demographic Trends
on Growth and Financial Markets 66
References 73
3. The “New Mediocre” and the Outlook for Productivity in Asia 77
Introduction and Main Findings 77
The Productivity Picture in Asia and the Pacifc 78
Domestic and External Factors in Productivity Growth 84
Understanding Productivity Developments and Prospects in Asia: A Narrative Approach 87
Conclusions and Policy Implications 92
Annex 3.1 Methodology and Data for the Sector-Level Productivity Anaylsis 98
Annex 3.2 Methodology and Data for the Country-Level Productivity Analysis 101
References 104
Boxes
1.1 India’s Currency Withdrawal and Exchange and Its Economic Impact 26
1.2 Global Financial Spillovers to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Economies 29
1.3 Rising Household Debt in Asia 31
1.4 Potential Policy Changes in the United States and Implications for Asia 34
iv
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: ASIA AND PACIFIC
International Monetary Fund | April 2017
1.5 Myanmar: Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Financial Reforms 36
2.1 Japan: At the Forefront of the Demographic Transition 62
2.2 Fiscal Implications of Demographic Trends in Asia 64
3.1 Biased Technical Change and Productivity 94
3.2 The Roles of Government in Productivity: Case Studies of Australia and Singapore 96
Tables
1.1 Asia: Real GDP 38
1.2 Asia: General Government Balances 39
1.3 Asia: Current Account Balance 40
1.4 Asia: Consumer Prices 41
1.3.1 Drivers of Household Debt 33
2.1 Asia: Demographic Classifcation 45
2.2 Asia: Old-Age Dependency Ratios 46
2.3 Expected Impact of Demographic Variables on Current Account 53
2.4 Expected Impact of Demographic Variables on Interest Rate 56
2.5 Openness and Estimated Impact of Demographic Variables 58
2.6 Expected Impact of Demographic Variables on Asset Returns 59
2.2.1 Characteristics of Asian Public Pension Systems, End of 2015 65
Annex Table 2.1.1 Panel Regression: Demographics and Labor Productivity 67
Annex Table 2.1.2 EBA: Demographic Variables 68
Annex Table 2.1.3 Panel Regression and Long-Term Interest Rates, Stock Returns,
and Property Prices 70
Annex Table 2.1.4 F Tests: Demographics and Interaction Variables 70
Annex Table 2.1.5 Panel Regressions: Demographics and Long-Term Interest Rates 71
Annex Table 2.1.6 Null: Non-Stationarity (of order 1) 71
Annex Table 2.1.7 Long-Horizon Evidence on Demographic Structure and Real Rates 72
3.1 Levels of Enrollment in Tertiary Education 91
Annex Table 3.1.1 Variables and Their Data Sources 98
Annex Table 3.1.2 Industries 99
Annex Table 3.1.3 Sectoral Productivity Growth: Domestic and External Factors 100
Annex Table 3.2.1 Variables and Their Data Sources 101
Annex Table 3.2.2 Baseline Country-Level Total Factor Productivity Results 102
Annex Table 3.2.3 Absorptive Capacity in Asia 102
Annex Table 3.2.4 Asia Before and After the Global Financial Crisis 103
Annex Table 3.2.5 Complementarity between Domestic Investment and Foreign Direct Investment
in Emerging and Developling Asia and the Pacifc103
Figures
1.1 Asia: Cumulative Portfolio Flows 2
1.2 Asia: Equity Prices and Price-to-Earnings Ratios 3
1.3 Asia: Ten-Year Sovereign Bond Yields 3
1.4 Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads 3
1.5 Selected Asia: Exchange Rates 4
1.6 Selected Asia: Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation 4
1.7 Selected Asia: Real Private Sector Credit Growth 5
1.8 Consolidated Foreign Claims 5
1.9 Asia: Nonfnancial Corporate Sector Debt Issuance 5
1.10 Asia: Financial Stability Heat Map 6
1.11 Selected Banking Indicators 7
1.12 Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices 8
1.13 Selected Asia: Exports to Major Destinations 8
1.14 Emerging Asia: Exports and Demand in the West 9
1.15 Selected Asia: Retail Sales Volumes 9
1.16 Global Commodity Prices 9
1.17 Selected Asia: Headline Infation 9
1.18 Selected Asia: Core Infation 10
1.19 Asia: Current Account Balances 10
1.20 Selected Asia: Contributions to Projected Growth 12
1.21 Indicator Model for Asia: Projected versus Actual Real GDP Growth 13
1.22 Asia: Output Gap versus Credit Gap 15
1.23 Selected Asia: Real Policy Rates 16
1.24 Estimated Central Bank Reaction Functions 16
1.25 Selected Asia: Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance 16
1.26 United States: Interest Rates 17
1.27 Selected Vulnerability Indicators 18
1.28 Selected Asia: Vulnerability Indicators 19
1.29 Trade Exposure to Major Partners 20
1.30 Emerging Asia: Remittance Infows and Migrant Stock 21
1.31 World Risk Index, 2016 22
1.1.1 Number of Payment Cards, 2015 26
1.1.2 Number of Transactions with Payment Instruments, 2015 27
1.1.3 India: Purchasing Managers’ Index for Services and Manufacturing 27
1.1.4 India: GDP Growth Forecast 28
1.2.1 ASEAN-5: Cumulative Portfolio Flows 29
CONTENTS
v
International Monetary Fund | April 2017
。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看