Global economic
conditions survey report:
Q1, 2017
About ACCA
ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certifed
Accountants) is the global body for professional
accountants. It offers business-relevant, frst-choice
qualifcations to people of application, ability and
ambition around the world who seek a rewarding
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ACCA supports its 188,000 members and 480,000
students in 181 countries, helping them to develop
successful careers in accounting and business, with
the skills required by employers. ACCA works through
a network of 95 offces and centres and more than
7,110 Approved Employers worldwide, who provide
high standards of employee learning and development.
Through its public interest remit, ACCA promotes
appropriate regulation of accounting and conducts
relevant research to ensure accountancy continues to
grow in reputation and infuence.
Founded in 1904, ACCA has consistently held unique
core values: opportunity, diversity, innovation, integrity
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value to economies in all stages of development
and seek to develop capacity in the profession and
encourage the adoption of global standards. ACCA’s
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About IMA
IMA, the association of accountants and fnancial
professionals in business, is one of the largest and most
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education, networking and advocacy of the highest
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Institute of Management Accountants
April2017
The Global Economic
Conditions Survey (GECS),
carried out jointly by ACCA
and IMA, is the largest
regular economic survey of
accountants in the world,
in both the number of
respondents and the range of
economic variables it monitors.
Its main indices are good
predictors of GDP growth
in themed countries and
its daily trend deviations
correlate well with the VIX or
‘fear’ index, which measures
expected stock price volatility.
Global economic
conditions survey report:
Q1, 2017
The Global Economic Conditions Survey
(GECS), carried out jointly by ACCA
(the Association of Chartered Certifed
Accountants) and IMA (the Institute of
Management Accountants), is the largest
regular economic survey of accountants
around the world, in terms of both the
number of respondents and the range of
economic variables it monitors.
Its main indices are good predictors of
GDP growth in themed countries and its
daily trend deviations correlate well with
the VIX, or ‘fear’ index, which measures
expected stock price volatility.
Fieldwork for the Q1 2017 GECS took
place between 24 February and 13 March
2017 and attracted 1,334 responses from
ACCA and IMA members around the
world, including more than 150 CFOs.
ACCA and IMA would like to thank all
members who took the time to respond
to the survey. It is their frst-hand insights
into the fortunes of companies around the
world that make GECS a trusted barometer
for the global economy.
We would also like to thank the following
for their time and expertise:
International Economist, Capital
Economics
Economist, Lombard Street Research
Markit.
Introduction
The Global Economic
Conditions Survey (GECS)
is the largest regular
economic survey of
accountants in the world.Economic confdence rebounded in
the frst quarter of 2017, and is now at
its highest level since the second quarter
of 2015.
This improvement in the Global Economic
Conditions Survey (GECS) results is
matched by other surveys, as well as the
hard data. These improvements have
been driven by the US, where investors are
hopeful that a combination of fscal reform,
increased investment in infrastructure
and deregulation will provide a boost to
economic growth.
The biggest concern for companies over the
past three months has been increased costs
(a problem for 46% of respondents), which
is consistent with rising headline infation
rates in many parts of both the developed
and developing worlds. The negative
impact of foreign-exchange movements,
amid continued swings in the value of the
dollar are other big concerns (35%).
Although driven by the US, the improvement
in confdence is widespread. Most countries
and regions, including Western Europe,
Asia Pacifc and Central and Eastern
Europe, reported improvements in Q1.
Executive summary
Economic confidence
rebounded in the first
quarter of 2017, and is
now at its highest level
since the second quarter
of 2015.Chart 1: Global confdence is on the up
Source: GECSGlobal economic confdence improved in
the frst quarter of 2017 and is now at its
highest level since Q2 2015.
This improvement in GECS’s confdence
index is consistent with other survey data,
such as the manufacturing purchasing
manager indexes (PMIs), as well as hard
data – notably for exports. All of these
suggest that the global economy made a
strong start this year.
‘The global PMI is at its highest level in
four years, and that follows a temporary
pick-up from the crash, so something has
clearly changed,’ says Dario Perkins, Chief
European Economist at Lombard Street
Research. ‘Contrast that with 12 months
ago, when everyone was worried about
secular stagnation and helicopter money,
and it’s a pretty good turnaround.’
News from the US has been positive,
with investors hopeful that the boost
from a US stimulus would offset
the damage from any shift towards
protectionism. Data from the Eurozone
has also been encouraging – despite the
uncertain political outlook in France and
Germany, which are both due to hold
elections later this year.
The picture in the emerging world is also
positive. China continues to recover as the
impact of a recent government stimulus
feeds through into the rest of the economy.
And India looks like it is rebounding from
last year’s short-lived slowdown, linked
to the government’s demonetisation
campaign. Prospects in Russia and Brazil,
meanwhile, which were hit especially hard by
the collapse in oil prices and sharp fall in the
value of their currencies, are also improving.
1. Global level analysis
Global economic
confidence improved in
the first quarter of 2017
and is now at its highest
level since Q2 2015.
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