本文以 A 市为例，通过对 A 市卷烟市场状况进行分析研究，对 A 市消费者
进行了调研，通过调研结果选择需求预测影响因素，来对比和选择适合的需求
预测模型，并运用模型预测未来两年卷烟销量，得出预测结论
科学准确的卷烟市场需求预测，不仅是确保卷烟市场需求端和供给端有效
衔接的基础，也是提高卷烟商业企业自身卷烟销售、配送、仓储等日常经营效
率，提升卷烟经营效益的现实需要。因此，卷烟商业企业如何在现行营销模式
下，做好本辖区卷烟市场需求预测，科学预测卷烟销量，促进货源购进与市场
需求的匹配度，保证卷烟市场按需供应就变得极为重要
关键词：卷烟产品；市场；需求预测Abstract
II
Abstract
At present, China&39;s economic development since 2014 into the new normal, the
tobacco industry must also face the development of growth rate down, industrial and
commercial inventories increased, narrowing the structure space, demand turning point
approach and other four problems, The real needs of the market, from the perspective
of cigarette marketing ecological chain to promote the monopoly under the system of
marketing strategy to promote the market, promote the industry under the new normal
and stable and healthy development, is the current effective crack problem, an
important path to deal with challenges. I believe that the implementation of
market-oriented reform of the key and focus is on the cigarette product market demand
forecast research and grasp.
Taking A city as an example, based on A cigarette market situation analysis, has
carried on the investigation, to A city consumer demand forecast through survey
selection influence factors, to compare and choose the suitable demand forecasting
model, and using the model to predict the future two years cigarette sales, forecast
conclusion.
Scientific and accurate prediction of the market demand for cigarettes is not only
the basis for ensuring the effective convergence of the demand and supply side of the
cigarette market, but also the practical needs of improving the operating efficiency of
cigarettes business enterprises such as cigarette sales, distribution and warehousing.
Therefore, the cigarette business enterprises in the current marketing model, do a good
job in the region&39;s cigarette market demand forecast, scientific forecast cigarette sales,
grasp the real market operating conditions and needs to promote the purchase of goods
and market demand matching, to ensure that the cigarette market on demand Supply
becomes extremely important.
Key words: cigarette products,market, demand forecast.目录
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目录
摘要...........I
Abstract ...II
第一章 绪论......... 1
第一节 问题的提出及研究意义... 1
一、问题的提出........1
二、研究意义1
第二节 国内外研究现状... 2
一、国外研究现状....2
二、国内研究现状....4
三、研究现状评述....6
第三节 研究目的及方法... 7
一、研究目的7
二、研究方法7
第四节 研究内容... 8
第五节 技术路线及创新点........... 8
一、技术路线8
二、创新点....9
第二章 研究理论基础... 10
第一节 定性预测方法..... 10
第二节 多元回归预测模型......... 10
第三节 季节变动预测法. 11
第四节 ARMA 模型预测理论 ..... 12
第三章 A市卷烟市场状况分析.......... 14
第一节 A市历年卷烟销售数据分析....... 14
第二节 A市烟草发展总体情况... 17
一、A市经济发展情况......17
二、A市烟草业发展状况..18
三、A市卷烟品牌发展状况..........19
第三节 A市卷烟市场表现情况... 23目录
IV
第四章 A市卷烟市场需求预测分析... 25
第一节 影响市场需求的因素..... 25
一、影响卷烟市场需求的长期性因素......25
二、影响卷烟市场需求的短期性因素......25
第二节 A市卷烟市场对数模型的选择和年度需求预测........... 25
二、对数模型的选择和需求预测..31
三、半年度、季度卷烟需求预测模型的选择和需求预测..........34
四、各品类月度卷烟需求预测模型选择和需求预测......37
第五章 卷烟市场需求预测对策建议... 46
第一节 需求预测方面的建议..... 46
一、重新构建卷烟市场需求预测模型... 46
二、重新构建卷烟市场需求预测机制... 46
第二节 卷烟经营方面的建议..... 49
一、关注卷烟季节波动规律，服务民俗、节日市场。..49
二、重视消费结构提升与卷烟销量增长的矛盾.....
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