本文介绍了 S 公司的 X 网络游戏项目在腾讯游戏平台上的运营情况和
运营日志系统，并从日志系统所采集日志数据出发，经过数据清洗和数据重
构后进行统计和分析，发现 X 项目在用户留存率(User Retention Rate，URR)、
平均每用户收益(Average Revenue Per User, ARPU)、平均在线人数(Average
Concurrent Users, ACU)以及项目生命周期价值(Life Time Value, LTV)等几个
核心运营指标方面存在的严重问题
同时，经过针对平均每付费用户收益（Average Revenue Per Pay User，
ARPPU）的数据分析，发现 X 项目存在每付费用户投入成本过高的问题，这
既有悖于社会公德，也不利于延长 X 项目的生命周期，同时也有违 S 公司所
倡导的“健康，娱乐，共赢”的企业理念。S 公司认为，作为一个为用户提供
娱乐的公司，应以实际行动表现出企业所应有的社会责任感
针对上述问题，结合目前网络游戏用户的行为特点和网络游戏的虚拟特
性，本文提出从用户生命周期价值的视角优化现有 S 公司运营管理。只有解
决核心的用户数量保持问题，才能解决X项目所存在的以上严重问题。为此，
基于用户生命周期价值理论，企业不仅仅要关注付费用户这一经济价值主要
贡献群体，还应该同等关注占比超过 90%、贡献出大量时间价值的免费用户
继而，本文建立了网络游戏用户生命周期价值模型，这为基于同一标准摘要
IV
来评价免费用户和付费用户为该项目所贡献的生命周期价值提供了技术手段
并基于历史运营数据，通过回归分析得到了模型相关参数
通过每日循环计算每个用户的生命周期价值，对用户群体进行细分，并
分析具有不同生命周期价值的用户群体的客观需求和他们所关注的焦点内容，
本文提出了有针对性的具体运营优化措施
本文最后以实施优化措施后 1 个月的实际运营数据，验证了基于用户生
命周期价值的运营优化方案的有效性
指导老师：陈梅梅
关键词：用户生命周期价值；运营优化；网络游戏；客户细分；免费用户价
值ABSTRACT
V
OPERATION MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION
OF X ONLINE GAME OF S COMPANY BASED
ON LTV
ABSTRACT
After ten years of rapid development of the domestic online game industry , the
competition is becoming increasingly fierce in online game market. All of online game
developers and operators are more and more concerned about the game quality, and try every
effort to optimize the operation and management constantly, eventually to improve the
competitiveness of products.
This paper introduces the X online game product in S company, which is running in
Tencent Game platform. To collect the information of the installation of the software and all
the activities of the users in the game, X product has a powerful Log System. From the data
in the Log System, the analysis system will generate the result for the user retention rate (URR,
User Retention Rate), the average revenue per user (ARPU, Average Revenue Per User), the
average number of online (ACU, Average Concurrent Users) and project life cycle value (LTV,
Life Time Value). Through the analyst data, some serious problems about 4 core indicators
can be seen and must be resolved by the time of X product commercial launch.
On this basis, through the analysis of the behavior of the online game users, and the
characteristics of the virtual world itself, this paper promotes that, the operators should adjust
their view to the users’ Life Time Value, not only just concern about the paying users who
have contributed by economic value, but also concern about the free users who continue toABSTRACT
VI
create the time value.
In this paper, it’s promoted that within the same virtual world, all of the paying users are
transferred by the free users, and the free users themselves are the new contents of the game,
which are exactly consumed by the paying users in the game. Therefore, the balance between
the number of free users and the number of paying users, is the key to ensure the stability of
foundation of the virtual world.
Based on the historical operation data, by regression analysis method, the paper
established a unified user life cycle value computing model for both paying users and users
free. It provides the technical feasibility to evaluate the life cycle value for all the users,
including paying users and free users, based on the same criterion.
By computing Life Time Value for every user once a day, there is a new daily value for
all users. Based on the Life Time Value, by performing a user segmentation, analyzing the
needs of different user groups, focusing their attention on the game design and contents, this
paper proposes some specific optimization methods to improve the operation.
Finally, based on the actual operation data of 1 month after the implementation of the
optimization methods, this paper verifies the effectiveness of the optimization methods for
the operation based on the user life cycle value.
Zhang Junfu (MBA)
Supervised by Chen MeiMei
KEY WORDS: customer lifecycle value; life time value; optimization of operation
online game; customer segmentation; value of free users目录
VII
目录
第一章 绪论...... IX
1.1 选题背景介绍 .........1
1.1.1 网络游戏市场产品竞争激烈 ...1
1.1.2 网络游戏行业面临的挑战及问题 .......2
1.2 用户生命周期价值视角下的游戏企业竞争概述 ..3
1.3 研究目的与意义 .....4
1.3.1 选题的理论意义 ..........4
1.3.2 选题的实际意义 ..........5
第二章 用户生命周期价值相关理论与综述......6
2.1 用户生命周期价值概念综述.........6
2.1.1 用户生命周期 ..6
2.1.2 用户生命周期价值（LTV） ...8
2.2 用户生命周期价值模型理论介绍 .9
2.2.1 用户生命周期价值模型理论介绍 .......9
2.2.2 用户生命周期价值理论的应用介绍 .12
2.3 生命周期价值理论在网游领域的应用研究综述 ...........14
2.3.1 网络游戏用户行为特征分析 .15
2.3.2 游戏领域的用户生命周期价值分析 .16
第三章 S 公司运营问题分析-以 X 项目为例...18
3.1 X 网络游戏研发及运营情况介绍 18
3.2 X 游戏运营日志系统及数据采集 18
3.2.1 X 游戏运营日志内容介绍 .....19
3.2.2 X 游戏运营数据采集和预处理 .........20
3.3 基于 X 游戏日志的现存问题分析 ..........24
3.3.1 用户留存/用户流失问题分析24
3.3.2 平均每用户收益(ARPU)问题分析....26
3.3.3 平均在线人数问题分析.........28
3.3.4 项目生命周期价值问题分析 .30
3.3.5 X 游戏的现存问题总结 .........34目录
VIII
第四章 基于用户生命周期用户细分的运营优化 ........36
4.1 基于 LTV 理论的用户细分 ..........36
4.1.1 基于“用户价值”的运营视角分析 .....38
4.1.2 用户的经济价值和时间价值分析 .....38
4.1.3 X 游戏的统一用户生命周期价值模型 .........39
4.1.4 基于用户生命周期价值的用户分类 .40
4.1.6 基于 LTV 进行用户细分的方法总结42
4.2 基于用户细分的运营管理优化 ....42
4.2.1 对不同生命价值的用户服务策略分析 ..
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