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我们预计国内总体血制品市场规模增速将快于中国整体医药市场，从2016年的
226亿元人民币（33亿美元）升至2020年的339亿元人民币（49亿美元），同
时：(1) 市场增长驱动力将从白蛋白转向静注人免疫球蛋白 （IVIG/静丙）；(2) 龙
头企业的研发投入带动产品组合多元化；(3) IVIG和凝血因子制品价格上涨
深入分析市场动态
我们通过供需模型（见图表5）对市场动态的五个主要方面进行了解析。我们的
研究显示：(1) 市场或将因为白蛋白面临价格下滑而有所波动，但中长期需求将更
趋稳健，基于疗效的临床应用将取代过度用药，成为市场主要驱动力；(2) IVIG将
成为2017-2020年的市场推动因素，其潜在的治疗需求显示中国IVIG消费量有
10倍以上的增长空间；(3) 由于捐献血浆有着严格的监管规定，血浆供应短缺仍
将是2017-2020年市场的主要限制因素
主要风险：白蛋白可能面临价格下降
我们谨慎看待白蛋白价格（预计2017年降价幅度为2%），因为我们认为下列因
素将令供需格局在2017年趋近平衡：(1) 2017年国内白蛋白供应增长，2016年
血浆采集量超过7,000吨（同比增速超20%）；(2) 2016年白蛋白库存处于高
位；(3) 跨国公司对中国市场的持续关注将带动白蛋白业务增长；(3) 医院的过度
使用现象有望得到控制（被过度使用的白蛋白超过40%）
长期赢家：买入华兰生物；泰邦生物中性
在挑选长期赢家时，我们看好具有下列特征的企业：(1) 拥有较强的血浆采集能
力；(2) 在IVIG领域占据领先地位；(3) 产品组合丰富；(4) 拥有展开并购的潜在
实力。我们首次覆盖两家市场龙头企业：(1) 华兰生物(002007.SZ)：评级为买
入，12个月目标价格人民币43.4元，上涨空间24.5%；(2) 泰邦生物(CBPO)：
评级为中性，12个月目标价格117.2美元，上涨空间2.8%。两只股票的目标价
格均基于贴现退出2020年预期市盈率计算得出
*
全文翻译随后提供
股票评级和目标价格
注：股价截至2017年5月24日收盘。 并购评分：1分表明被收购的概率较高，4分表明概率极低或为零
资料来源：
Datastream
、高盛全球投资研究
血液中的重要成分
血浆：血液中的液体部分，在人体总血量中大约占55%，主要由
水构成，并含有蛋白质
白蛋白：人体血浆中含量最多的蛋白质
静脉注射免疫球蛋白(IVIG)：血浆中的抗体，被免疫系统用来抵
抗病菌
凝血因子：血凝块形成过程中的重要蛋白质，主要凝血因子包括
因子VIII、因子IX和纤维蛋白原
陈子易 执业证书编号: S1420516060001 +86(21)2401-8928 ziyi.chen@ghsl 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企
业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当
考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视
本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要
信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系
北京高华证券有限责任公司投资研究
Price24-May-
2017H-Share
CSPC1093.HKBuyHKD11.3412.6623x4Weigao1066.HKBuyHKD6.096.5215x3
3SBio1530.HKBuyHKD10.8411.8022x4CR Pharma3320.HKBuyHKD8.8810.8416x4
Luye2186.HKNeutralHKD4.705.3015x4Sino Biopharm1177.HKNeutralHKD6.866.5520x4
Fosun (H)2196.HKNeutralHKD29.4025.7014x4SPH (H)2607.HKNeutralHKD22.1021.2313x4
CMS0867.HKNeutralHKD13.9813.4015x3Sinopharm1099.HKNeutralHKD35.0036.3516x4
BYS (H)0874.HKSellHKD21.2015.2013x4US-listed
BeiGeneBGNEBuyUSD38.4043.00n.a.3CBPOCBPONeutralUSD113.98117.2021x3
A-shareHualan002007.SZBuyCNY34.8743.4032x4
Fosun (A)600196.SSBuyCNY31.6627.5017x4Hengrui600276.SSBuyCNY60.1156.6135x4
CompanyTickerRatingM&A scorePriceCcy.12-m TP
TP Implied
P/E(18E)
2017年5月30日中国：医疗保健
全球投资研究 2
Contents
Plasma screen: addressing supply-demand imbalance 6
What will the price trend for blood products be 7
How is demand-supply balance of albumin, the largest blood product 8
What will drive the emergence of IVIG 12
What will drive the plasma market — albumin, IVIG or factor VIII 15
What are the key obstacles in solving plasma supply shortage 18
China versus global peers: poised to catch up 20
Product offering remains limited; but poised for diversification 20
Market consolidation is ongoing 21
Hualan Bio (002007.SZ): Riding the shift in market driver; Buy 23
Overview: Leading plasma collection capacity, with potential to grow 25
Financials at a glance: 2016 a possible inflection year for earnings 33
China Biological Products: A leader with near-term risk; Neutral 43
Overview: capacity expansion and potential new product in 2018 45
Financials at a glance: we expect c.18% 2016-2019 earnings CAGR 49
M&A framework for Hualan Bio and CBPO 58
Disclosure Appendix 60
Prices in this report are based on the market close of May 24, 2017.
Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of Richard Yeh, Veronika Dubajova, CFA and Young Hak You of Goldman
Sachs in the preparation of this product.
Exhibit 1: Glossary of blood products
资料来源：
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Glossary
AlbuminThe most common plasma protein, is critical in regulate the oncotic pressure of blood
Anti-thrombin IIIA small protein molecule that inactivates several enzymes of the coagulation system
Blood product / plasma productTherapeutic proteins separated from the plasma, most common ones include: albumin, coagulation factors
(factor VIII / IX, fibrinogen, prothrombin complex concentrate), immunoglobulin (IVIG) and hyper
immunoglobulin
Coagulation factors / blood clotting
factors
A group of proteins that are essential in the formation of blood clots. Common coagulation factor products
include: factor VIII (treating hemophilia A), factor IX (treating hemophilia B), fibrinogen (or factor I) and PCC
(prothrombin complex concentrate, which is a mix of factor II, IX and X)
FractionationThe process of separating whole blood or blood plasma into its component parts.
Hyper immunoglobulin / HyperIGSpecialized immunoglobulin, e.g. rabies immunoglobulin, tetanus immunoglobulin and hepatitis
immunoglobulin
HypoalbuminemiaA medical sign in which the level of albumin in the blood is abnormally low.
IVIG (intravenous immunoglobulin)Immunoglobulin is an antibody that is used by the immune system to neutralize pathogens such as
bacteria and viruses. IVIG contains pooled immunoglobulin G from a large number of donors, used in
treating primary and secondary immunodeficiency.
Plasma collection centerA place where people can donate or sale of blood plasma for use in medical or other products. Unlike blood
donors, most plasma donors in the China are paid. The procedure is done in a walk-in facility, where whole
blood is taken through an IV needle and separated into plasma and blood cells, plasma is collected, while
blood cells are circulated back to donors
Recombinant coagulation factorsDifferent from plasma-derived coagulation factors, which are coagulation factors collected from blood
plasma, recombinant coagulation factors are manufactured using genetic engineering methods
Primary immunodeficiencyDisorders in which part of the body's immune system is missing or does not function normally.
