为了帮助企业应对财务风险，专家学者们提出了利用相关财务
数据，构建财务风险预警模型以对财务风险进行预警的这一方法，
其根本理论依据在于：企业财务风险的产生不是一蹴而就的，是一
个渐进、由多种因素引发的过程，所以如果能够事先发现并控制好
这些因素，那么就有可能将财务风险发生的可能性降到最低。本文
正是在这一理论基础之上，将未被大多数学者采用的却经研究表明
与企业财务风险有着密切联系的企业资产质量指标体系加入财务风
险预警模型的构建中，以探讨资产质量指标体系的加入能否提高预
警模型的准确性
本文大致可以分为理论分析、实证分析和对策建议三个部分
在理论分析部分，本文首先阐述了财务风险的定义和常见的财务预
警模型，以及资产质量的相关定义和资产质量评价体系，接着说明
了财务风险与资产质量的关系或者资产质量影响财务风险的机理；
在实证分析部分，本文首先对样本公司和研究数据进行了选择，选
取了 2010 至 2013 年首次被 ST 的 48 家上市公司以及配比的 96 家正
常公司的数据，依次使用显著性检验和共线性诊断，对初步选择好II
的指标进行层层筛选，以确定用于构建逻辑回归模型的最终指标，
最后利用这些确定好的最终指标来分别构建只含常用财务指标体系
的传统预警模型与含有资产质量指标体系的资产质量模型，通过比
较这两种预警模型的结果，发现资产质量指标的引入能够提高财务
风险预警模型的准确性；在对策建议部分，本文结合理论分析与实
证分析，给管理者提供了树立风险意识、做好资产管理等建议，以
帮助企业降低财务风险的可能性
关键词：资产质量；财务预警；逻辑回归模型III
FINANCIAN RISK EARLY WARNING MODEL STUDY
INTRODUCING ENTERPRISE’S ASSET QUALITY
INDICATORS
Zhu-chao-qun(Accountancy)
Directed by Huang-de-zhong
Abstract: Financial risk is quite common during company’s
development course, whose direct performance, in a few words, is that a
company just can’t repay debts that are due and which could be triggered
by various factors like company’s profit-making ability, company’s
operation ability, company’s inner-control and so on. Obviously the
financial risk is harmful for a company, influencing its normal
economical activities at best, driving it into bankruptcy at worst.
In order to help companies to cope with financial risk, experts and
scholars figured out using related financial dates to build financial-early
warning models to forecast the financial risk. This method lies in a
theory that company’s financial risk is not formed overnight and the
process of its formation is gradual and contains many triggering factors,
and if we can find and control those factors in advance then it is possible
to reduce the occurrence of the financial risk to the least. This paper is
also based on this theory, trying to add the asset quality indicators,
which are not adopted by most researchers and proved having close
relation with financial risk, into the building of financial-early warningIV
models to see whether the asset quality indicators can improve the can
improve the accuracy of the financial early-warning models.
This paper consists of three parts: theoretical analysis, empirical
analysis, measures and suggestions. In the theoretical analysis part,
this paper first elaborated the definition of financial risk and common
financial-early warning models, coupled with the definition of asset
quality and asset quality assessment system, then introduced the
relationship between financial risk and asset quality, or in another words,
explained how the asset quality affects the financial risk. In the empirical
analysis part, this paper first selected sample companies and research
dates, selecting 48 listed companies which were special treated by CSRC
for the first time in the year 2010 to 2013 because of having financial
problems and 96 matched listed companies whose financial condition
were good at the time and these 144 companies’ dates, and then used
significance test and collinearity-diagnostics to narrow down the final
indicators which would be used in the building of logistic regression
models, and then built two kinds of financial early-warning models
separately, one of which only included the common financial indicators
and the other one of which included asset quality indicators as well as
common financial indicators by these final indicators. By comparing the
results of these two models, this paper found that the introduction of the
asset quality indicators can improve the accuracy of the financialV
early-warning model. In the last part, this paper gave measures and
suggestions like establishing risk awareness and conducting excellent
management of assets to managers by combining theoretical analysis
and empirical analysis above to help reduce the occurrence of financial
risk.
Key words: Assets’ quality Financial early-warning Logistic
regression model目 录
摘要
..
Ⅰ
Abstract
...
Ⅲ
第 1 章 导论.......... 1
1.1 研究背景
...... 1
1.2 研究意义
...... 1
1.3 研究构架
...... 2
1.4 研究方法
...... 3
1.5 可能的创新点
........ 4
1.6 存在的不足之处
... 4
第 2 章 财务风险预警文献综述 ..... 5
2.1 财务风险的界定及其产生原因
......... 5
2.1.1 财务风险的概念及其特征
........... 5
2.1.2 财务风险产生的原因
......... 6
2.1.3 财务危机的概念与判定标准
...... 7
2.2 财务风险预警的界定与常用的预警模型
.. 8
2.2.1 财务风险预警的定义
....... 8
2.2.2 财务风险预警的模型
....... 9 2.3 文献述评
.....13
第 3 章 企业资产质量文献综述
...15
3.1 国外研究现状
.......15
3.2 国内研究现状
.......15
3.2.1 资产质量的概念界定
.......15
3.2.2 资产质量评价体系
...........16
3.3 文献述评
.....17
3.4 资产质量影响财务风险的机理论证
.........19
第 4 章 实证研究 .........23
4.1 样本选择
.....23
4.1.1 财务危机公司的选取
........23
4.1.2 配比正常公司的选取
........24
4.1.3 样本数据的时间范围
........26
4.2 指标初选
....27
4.2.1 衡量企业财务风险的初选指标
.........27
4.2.2 衡量企业资产质量的初选指标
.........28
4.3 指标再选
.....31
4.3.1 显著性检验
..31
4.3.2 相关性检验
..41 4.3.3 指标确定
.......48
4.4 预警模型的构建与回判
.........48
4.4.1 Logistic 回归概述
..48
4.4.2 T-3 年预警模型的构建与回判
50
4.4.3 T-2 年预警模型的构建与回判
53
第 5 章 研究结论与对策建议 ........57
5.1 研究结论
.....57
5.2 对策建议
.....58
参考文献
......61
作者攻读学位期间的科研成果
........65
致谢
....67 1
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