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MBA毕业论文_中小出口企业汇率风险分析及应对策略选择(55页).rar

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更新时间:2018/9/5(发布于湖北)

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文本描述
摘 要
中小企业对我国国民经济发展具有举足轻重的作用。在我国工业企业与生产
单位中,出口型中小企业占很大比重。据统计数据显示,近年来出口型中小企业
出口额占我国总出口额的 60%,为我国经济发展、就业增加、科技创新发挥了不
可替代的作用。然而,由于近年来国际金融市场不稳定性增强,汇率波动幅度逐
步加大,特别是受人民币升值的影响,中小出口企业在原材料成本上的优势不复
存在,相当一部分中小出口企业利润锐减、风险增大,很多出口型中小企业出现
亏损。

本文结合当前我国人民币汇率升值现状对中小出口企业汇率风险进行分析。

文章首先阐述了研究背景及意义、国内外研究现状等,并通过对汇率风险种类及
其对中小企业的影响进行详细介绍为全文分析铺垫,其次结合当前我国经济环境
分析在人民币升值背景下中小企业面临的困难以及在这当中暴露出的问题与不
足。当前我国中小企业在对外出口中处于被动地位,导致中小企业在面临汇率风
险时常常显得束手无策。为对中小企业在对外出口中享有较低的决定权加以验
证,本文通过价格传导模型对美国进口商品价格与人民币兑美元汇率变化进行实
证分析。利用格兰杰因果关系检验、协整检验对上述变量间的长期稳定关系进行
验证,最终得出:美国进口价格受人民币汇率变动影响不大,我国中小企业对外
出口主动权较弱。在实证分析的基础上本文对造成这种现象的原因加以分析,最
后文章提出了我国中小出口企业汇率风险的应对策略,从多方面给出意见及建
议。

鉴于我国中小出口企业应对汇率风险存在的避险方式单一、缺乏风险管理工
具等问题以及中小企业出口多以加工出口为主要生产模式,依靠价格手段为主要
竞争手段的现状,本文提出中小出口企业规避汇率风险的措施应从实现产业升
级、优化中小企业汇率风险管理体系、利用衍生品作为控制汇率风险的工具等出
发提高自身竞争力,对于中小出口企业应对汇率风险、提高自身在国际市场竞争
能力具有重要意义。

关键词:中小出口企业;汇率风险;应对策略Analysis and Strategy Selection of Foreign Exchange Risks for
Small and Media Sized Export Enterprises
Abstract
Small and medium-sized enterprises have played an important role in the
country’s financial and economic development. In China, most of exporting
enterprises constitute the main part of industrial sections. According to the statistics,
exporting enterprises held around 60% of the total volume of exports which is unique
in the economic development, employment increasing, innovation of science and
technology. However, the advantage of the raw material for the exporting of the SME
has gone in terms of the enhancement of the instability of the international financial
market, the intensification of the exchange rate fluctuation and the appreciation of
RMB. As a result, quite a few exporting SME’s profits have diminished along with the
rising risk and outcome of the deficit.
This essay has made the analysis based upon the appreciation of the exchange
rate of the RMB against the SME exchange rate. It has firstly elaborated the purpose
and background of the research, internal and external situation. In addition, it has put
more effort on the study of the types of the exchange rate risks which could have
affected the SME. Moreover, it has analyzed the exchange rate difficulties and
problems of the SME in light of the national economic environment. At the moment,
the Chinese SME has positioned adversely in the foreign export resulting in the
incapable of the facing exchange rate risk. In order to verify the lower decision rights
in the foreign export, this article has investigated the U.S. importing prices, exchange
rate between U.S. Dollar and RMB, importing process for the exporting commodities
through the VAR Model. It has found the following conclusions: the fluctuation of the
RMB exchange rate is not the key point for the U.S. importing prices, the decision
rights for Chinese SME is not strong enough by use of the Grainger Causality test and
Co integration test. It has also discussed the cause according to the realistic analysis.
In the end, this article has pointed the measures for the SME exchange rate from all
different kinds of perspectives.