《2010年中金UBS等机构煤炭能源钢铁等行业市场研究报告合集》(25个文件).rar We　expect　China＇s　oil　demand　to　grow　at　6.2%　in　2010　and　9.0% in　2011.　We　examine　the　current　situation　from　a　variety　of　physical　oil demand　drivers　(capital　investment,　domestic　consumption,　car　sales). ＆＃8226；　While　China＇s　fiscal　stimulus　package　may　boost　growth　in　this　year,　its longer-term　impact　should　not　be　underestimated,　especially　when projects　usually　take　a　long　time　to　complete.　Hence,　capital　investment　is likely　to　be　strong.　Meanwhile,　the　investment　boom　has　encouraged　job creation　and　strength　in　consumer　expenditure,　which　in　turn　augmented strong　consumption　spending,　driving　up　demand　for　domestic　demand. ＆＃8226；　As　a　recap,　the　Chinese　market　witnessed　an　improved　economy　in　2009, thanks　to　the　government＇s　aggressive　stimulus　spending　and　various subsidies.　Throughout　this　recovery　period,　manufacturing　has　seen　a strong　rebound,　largely　due　to　base　effects　and　strong　domestic　demand. ANZ＇s　real　activity　index,　which　tracks　a　composite　of　industrial　and consumption　data,　reached　a　second　record　high　in　4Q09.　The　vehicle market　saw　13　million　new　sales　last　year.　Steel　production,　an　indirect measure　of　construction　and　investment　activities,　recorded　a　turnaround in　2009.　Going　forward,　our　ANZ　economists　expect　1Q10　GDP　growth　to reach　a　record　11.6%　(YoY),　with　risk　biased　to　the　upside. ＆＃8226；　Our　economists＇　forecast　calls　for　a　more　proactive　monetary　tightening measures,　going　forward.　Rising　CPI　inflation,　surging　export　growth　and housing　price　data　suggest　that　China　needs　to　pare　back　on　its aggressive　stimulus　and　monetary　policies.　(Reference:　China　Economics and　Research　–　China　is　on　the　Brink　of　Overheating,　Mar　2010) ＆＃8226；　Post　this　period,　we　question　on　whether　employing　economic　tightening measures　will　impact　China＇s　oil　demand　growth.　We　stress-test　how these　demand　indicators　will　react　to　credit　tightening.　Our　analysis suggests　that　China＇s　cooling　measures　will　have　limited　effects　on　China＇s oil　demand,　bolstered　by　strong　underlying　oil　demand　drivers. ＆＃8226；　However,　in　the　past　two　years,　we　note　that　China　has　implemented several　policies　to　contain　the　domestic　oil　consumption　modestly, including　hikes　on　oil　consumption　tax　and　a　reform　on　oil　products＇ pricing　mechanism. ＆＃8226；　In　addition,　according　to　preliminary　trade　data　released　last　Saturday, Chinese　imports　rose　sharply　in　Mar　in　part　owing　to　price　increases　in global　commodities　(including　crude).　This　implies　that　China　continues　to import　inflation.　Should　further　economic　data　suggest　that　inflation　has accelerated　and　oil　prices　remain　above　US$80/bbl,　we　believe　China＇s National　Development　Reform　Commission　will　find　another　reason　to raise　gasoline　and　diesel　prices　–　that　is,　to　contain　inflation.