《2010年野村证券能源煤炭钢铁铁路行业市场研究报告》(4个文件).rar Action Weekly　update:　spot　prices　of　thermal　coal　at　Qinhuangdao　(QHD)　rose　by　2.2% and　Shanxi　ex-mine　was　unchanged.　As　of　26　April　2010,　the　QHD　spot　price　was up　22.1%　y-y　and　down　10.2%　YTD.　While　Australia＇s　price　at　Newcastle　was　down 0.5%　w-w,　QHD　is　now　at　a　9.4%　premium　to　Australian　prices.　QHD　inventory decreased　to　5.1mn　tonnes　and　inventory　at　IPPs　increased　to　13　days. ＆＃1048673；　Catalysts Stronger　power　demand　in　FY10F　and　lower　coal　supply　growth　owing　to accelerating　industry　consolidation. Anchor　themes We　expect　a　demand　recovery　on　stronger　GDP　growth,　intermittent　bottlenecks　in transportation　and　limited　coal　imports　to　support　China＇s　coal　price　at　a　premium to　the　Australian　price.　The　closure　of　small　coal　mines　and　accelerating　industry consolidation　should　enhance　the　pricing　power　of　leading　coal　producers. Weekly　update　on　coal　(26　April　2010) ＆＃1048675；　Spot　coal　price:　QHD　up　by　2.2%,　Newcastle　down　0.5%　w-w The　QHD　benchmark　for　FOB　spot　thermal　coal　prices　rose　2.2%　w-w　to RMB705/t　(+22.1%　y-y,　Shanxi　premium　blend　at　5,500　kcal/kg)　as　of　26　April.　The Shanxi　benchmark　ex-mine　price　remained　flat　at　RMB525/t　(+20.7%　y-y). Australia＇s　price　at　Newcastle　decreased　0.5%　w-w　to　US$98.3/t　(+55.7%　y-y)　as of　16　April.　The　QHD-Newcastle　coal　price　premium,　thus,　is　9.4%　(up　1.3pp　w-w). ＆＃1048676；　Inventory:　QHD　down　13.7%　w-w,　IPP　inventory　at　13　days QHD　coal　inventory　fell　13.7%　w-w　to　5.1mn　tonnes　as　of　24　April　2010　(the average　level　has　been　4.88mn　tonnes　since　2002).　Coal　inventory　at　power　plants increased　to　13　days　as　of　25　April　2010.　January　2010　national　coal　inventory　of 169mn　tonnes　was　down　10.7%　y-y　and　fell　0.7%　m-m. ＆＃1048677；　Positive　on　China　coal　sector　and　Neutral　on　China　power　sector We　are　long-term　positive　on　China＇s　coal　industry,　given　a　balanced　demand/supply outlook,　intermittent　transportation　bottlenecks　and　accelerated　industry consolidation.　Demand　strength　attributable　to　accelerating　GDP　growth　and limitations　on　coal　imports　would　support　QHD　spot　coal　at　a　premium　to　Australian prices,　in　our　view.　On　the　contrary,　despite　attractive-looking　valuations　(0.8-1.8x book；　10-40%　below　replacement　cost),　we　are　Neutral　on　China　IPPs,　as　we　think higher　coal　costs　and　interest　rates　in　2010F　should　offset　gains　from　utilisation