野村证券《亚太地区手机行业研究报告》2008年3月(58页).rar Sleep　mode Asian　handset　plays　are　going　to　take　a　while　to　recharge.　We　had　cut　our　numbers across　the　board　earlier　this　year　to　reflect　Motorola＇s　problems,　but　TI　and　Sony Ericsson＇s　latest　concerns　on　replacement　demand　indicate　the　malaise　is　spreading beyond　the　high　end　into　the　mid-range　market.　Replacement　demand　in　developed markets　remains　a　big　proportion　of　handset　demand　(estimated　at　one-third　of　the 2008F　global　total),　and　the　repercussions　will　be　felt　by　all　links　in　the　handset　chain in　Asia.　We　have　cut　numbers　again　and　are　now　below　or　at　the　low　end　of consensus　on　FY08F　earnings　for　almost　all　stocks　under　our　coverage.　Ratings　are lowered　for　SEC　(NEUTRAL,　from　Strong　Buy),　HTC　(BUY,　from　Strong　Buy),　FIH (NEUTRAL　from　Buy)　AAC　(NEUTRAL,　from　Buy),　Merry　(REDUCE,　from　Neutral)　and Silitech　(REDUCE,　from　Buy).　Interestingly,　the　beleaguered　high　end　is　potentially where　positive　catalysts　will　first　re-emerge,　with　the　advent　of　more　advanced application　processors,　new　browsing　software　and　HSDPA　proliferation.　But　this　is　no time　to　invest　in　themes.　Our　remaining　BUYs　are　supported　by　company-specific catalysts:　BYD　and　LG　Electronics　are,　respectively,　seeing　share　gains　with　Nokia and　in　the　US；　HTC　enjoys　a　dominant　share　in　the　Microsoft　platform　niche. ＆＃1048675；　Replacement　demand:　the　next　shoe　to　drop ＆＃1048676；　Slowdown　to　extend　well　into　2H08F ＆＃1048677；　High　end　should　resume　growth　first